Ben is on vacation. I am alone with my new chum Paddy Power and must make all of the calls myself. After last week's poor showing, our pot stands at £84, and I have decided to limit my stake on today's game at Liverpool to a humble fiver.
Now. Liverpool started badly last week, but I like Brendan Rogers as a manager and I can't believe that he won't have a better plan today for his home turn out against City. City, for their part, are without Aguero, who got a month-style injury in last week's game v Southampton. Hmmm. Liverpool have home advantage. City are better. This has draw written all over it. Only the fact of BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson having predicted that result makes me less certain.
I opt for a change in strategy. I'm going to take our fiver and split it into 5 bets of £1 each. Let's see how that goes.
I start off by backing my hunch. There's 11/1 on offer for a 2-2 draw. It's waving at me from the card. I give it £1.
Next, Yaya Toure to score from outside the box at 14/1. Yes. Yaya fairly regularly smacks in a drive from twenty yards or more, so I bung £1 on this, too.
Now, City score most of their goals after the break, based on last season and the first couple of games of this. Paddy says 25/1 against Liverpool being in the lead at the interval, but City coming back to win by full time. OK. It's two eventualiies, but I think those are decent odds. £1.
Almost as attractive is City to win 3-1 being offered at 17/1. That's a very City score, and if we don't blow it completely, I could see a two goal margin with a blip letting Suarez or Carol (who has previous against City) snatch one for them. £1.
Our last pound? I'm going back to the draw I fancied all along. Paddy is offering a mouthwatering 300/1 against a scenario in which Liverpool are 2-1 up at the break, but City fight back and we end up with a 3-3 draw. A lot of things have to go right for us to collect, but I'm totally good with that slender likelihood for £1.
Let's see what happens.
THE MATCH
City get off to a good start, and for twenty minutes make most of the running. Then Liverpool get a grip, and on 34 minutes Skrtel meets a corner full on with his head, and Liverpool are 1-0 up. That doesn't kill any of our bets, and when they go in at 1-0 for half time, I'm feeling optimistic, with 4 of my 5 bets still live; only the one that depended on Liverpool being 2-1 up at the interval having collapsed
Early in the second half, Mancini pulls Nasri out and swaps in Jack Rodwell. 18 minutes into the half there's neat work by Tevez before Yaya toure wraps home. No I have a bet on Yaya to score, of course.. but it has to be from outside the box. This one is from inside the 6 yeard box, so no win for me there, but at least City are level.
For 2 minutes. Suarez beats Hart with a perfect free kick inside the post, and it's 2-1 Liverpool. And with that my 'City to win 3-1' bet also bites the dust. To be honest, I'm doubtful we'll get anything from this game, but then with Silva on for Milner Skirtel plays an awful and inexplicable back pass to Carlos Tevez who, unable to believe his luck, collects, rounds Reina and fires into an empty net for 2-2.
That's how it stays. We collect £11 on the correct 2-2 draw prediction, and lose £4 on the rest. But then Paddy's Money Back Special, which promiseda refund on losing actual score predictions if Tevez were to score gives us back the £1 stake we'd had at 17/1 on a 3-1 win for City.
That leaves our account balance back up to £92. I'll take that, at the end of the day... just as I'll take a point from a very hairy game at Anfield.
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