Well here we go then.
The Premiership season kicks off today, and City begin tomorrow, with a home game against newly promoted Southampton.
Few people expect much from Southampton this season, and the club will probably see Premiership survival as a real achievement. But the first day of the season can bring surprises and, Champions or not, this is Man City we're talking about.
The odds being quoted all assume that City will win comfortably, so we will need to choose with care to spot a bargain. And with £91 in our account, our maximum stake would be £9.10. We decide, notionally, to do £6.
We put £2 on City to win 3-0 with Aguero scoring first at 18/1. Aguero often scores first and City would be expected to win comfortably at home, where they won 18/19 last season and drew the other one.
Then we get adventurous and go for a tricky double in which we have to predict both the correct half time score, and full time score. We stick £2 on City to be 1-0 up at HT, before going on to win 3-1. It's at 40/1. We know that's two events we have to get right, but it looks more likely than 40/1 to us, and an £80 win would really seal our splendid opening to the season.
Next we put £2 on City to win 3-0 with Aguero scoring first at 18/1. Yes. You're right. We'd done this already, but we're a bit amateur with the online betting slip, and we placed the same bet twice. Leah, the online help assistant, advised that to reverse our erroneous £2 bet would involve 'referring this to senior management'. Seemed unlikely. And unnecessary. So we left it and have a total of £4 on Sergio to blaze the trail to a 3-0 win.
We still fancied another punt however.
City scored most of their goals last season in the second half, frequently battering a team for 10-15 minutes with 3 goals or more. Paddy is offering 20/1 against the score in the second half only being 4-0 to City. So forget what happens in the first 45 minutes; this is simply on what happens after the break. We stick £1 on, bringing our match stake to £7, and log off.
THE MATCH
The game is barely 8 minutes old when Sergio Aguero, City's Championship winning last-gasp goal hero, tries to outstrip a Southampton tackly down the left flank, hits the deck badly, and has to be stretchered off. Under 10 minutes gone, and our £4 bet is in the bin.
On comes Edin Dzeko in Aguero's place, and just a few minutes later Tevez is downed in the box and Howard Webb is pointing to the spot. This is good for us, as one of our remaining wagers depends on City going in 1-0 up at the break. So... Dzeko? Tevez? Nasri? No. For some unfathomable reason, up comes David Silva for such a poor penalty that Davies in the Southampton goal can barely believe his luck and saves comfortable.
As thehalf pushes on, City's dominance builds and, on 40 minutes, Tevez takes a through ball from the right and slots a neat drive inside the keeper's near post.
City go in 1-0 ahead, meaning that Ben and I have two shots for PaddyP glory: we need 3 more City goals after the break without reply, for our 1-0/3-1 HT/FT combo to kick in. Alternatively, four from City after the break, without reply, withh mean we collect on our 4-0 second half score punt.
HT City 1 - Southampton 0
Fifteen minutes into the second half, it's going to plan. Ish. Southampton bring on Ricky Lambert who scores within seconds. OK. Our 4-0 second half prediction is dead, but we're set for that 1-0 HT/3-1 FT combo that will land us £80 at 40/1 for our £2 punt.
Then it all goes wrong. Adkins brings on Davis and he slots one in almost instantly. It's 1-2. All of our bets are now gone and, worse still, we're trailing. At home.
As in the final game of last season, Dzeko equalises for 2-2. And as in the final game of last season, we go on to clinch a 3-2 win when Nasri smashes a loose clearance in from 15 yards.
Tough start to the season for City... and a reminder for Ben and I , who lose our £7 stake and end up with our pot reduced to £84, that a crystal ball, like a football, doesn't always bounce your way.
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