Fifty Quid on City

26 August 2012 - Liverpool v City at Anfield

Ben is on vacation. I am alone with my new chum Paddy Power and must make all of the calls myself. After last week's poor showing, our pot stands at £84, and I have decided to limit my stake on today's game at Liverpool to a humble fiver.

Now. Liverpool started badly last week, but I like Brendan Rogers as a manager and I can't believe that he won't have a better plan today for his home turn out against City. City, for their part, are without Aguero, who got a month-style injury in last week's game v Southampton. Hmmm. Liverpool have home advantage. City are better. This has draw written all over it. Only the fact of BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson having predicted that result makes me less certain.

I opt for a change in strategy. I'm going to take our fiver and split it into 5 bets of £1 each. Let's see how that goes.

I start off by backing my hunch. There's 11/1 on offer for a 2-2 draw. It's waving at me from the card. I give it £1.

Next, Yaya Toure to score from outside the box at 14/1. Yes. Yaya fairly regularly smacks in a drive from twenty yards or more, so I bung £1 on this, too.

Now, City score most of their goals after the break, based on last season and the first couple of games of this. Paddy says 25/1 against Liverpool being in the lead at the interval, but City coming back to win by full time. OK. It's two eventualiies, but I think those are decent odds. £1.

Almost as attractive is City to win 3-1 being offered at 17/1. That's a very City score, and if we don't blow it completely, I could see a two goal margin with a blip letting Suarez or Carol (who has previous against City) snatch one for them. £1.

Our last pound? I'm going back to the draw I fancied all along. Paddy is offering a mouthwatering 300/1 against a scenario in which Liverpool are 2-1 up at the break, but City fight back and we end up with a 3-3 draw. A lot of things have to go right for us to collect, but I'm totally good with that slender likelihood for £1.

Let's see what happens.

THE MATCH

City get off to a good start, and for twenty minutes make most of the running. Then Liverpool get a grip, and on 34 minutes Skrtel meets a corner full on with his head, and Liverpool are 1-0 up. That doesn't kill any of our bets, and when they go in at 1-0 for half time, I'm feeling optimistic, with 4 of my 5 bets still live; only the one that depended on Liverpool being 2-1 up at the interval having collapsed

Early in the second half, Mancini pulls Nasri out and swaps in Jack Rodwell. 18 minutes into the half there's neat work by Tevez before Yaya toure wraps home. No I have a bet on Yaya to score, of course.. but it has to be from outside the box. This one is from inside the 6 yeard box, so no win for me there, but at least City are level.

For 2 minutes. Suarez beats Hart with a perfect free kick inside the post, and it's 2-1 Liverpool. And with that my 'City to win 3-1' bet also bites the dust. To be honest, I'm doubtful we'll get anything from this game, but then with Silva on for Milner Skirtel plays an awful and inexplicable back pass to Carlos Tevez who, unable to believe his luck, collects, rounds Reina and fires into an empty net for 2-2.

That's how it stays. We collect £11 on the correct 2-2 draw prediction, and lose £4 on the rest. But then Paddy's Money Back Special, which promiseda refund on losing actual score predictions if Tevez were to score gives us back the £1 stake we'd had at 17/1 on a 3-1 win for City.

 

That leaves our account balance back up to £92. I'll take that, at the end of the day... just as I'll take a point from a very hairy game at Anfield.

 

 

19 August 2012 - City v Southampton at Eastlands

Well here we go then.

The Premiership season kicks off today, and City begin tomorrow, with a home game against newly promoted Southampton.

Few people expect much from Southampton this season, and the club will probably see Premiership survival as a real achievement. But the first day of the season can bring surprises and, Champions or not, this is Man City we're talking about.

The odds being quoted all assume that City will win comfortably, so we will need to choose with care to spot a bargain. And with £91 in our account, our maximum stake would be £9.10. We decide, notionally, to do £6.

We put £2 on City to win 3-0 with Aguero scoring first at 18/1. Aguero often scores first and City would  be expected to win comfortably at home, where they won 18/19 last season and drew the other one.

Then we get adventurous and go for a tricky double in which we have to predict both the correct half time score, and full time score. We stick £2 on City to be 1-0 up at HT, before going on to win 3-1. It's at 40/1. We know that's two events we have to get right, but it looks more likely than 40/1 to us, and an £80 win would really seal our splendid opening to the season.

Next we put £2 on City to win 3-0 with Aguero scoring first at 18/1. Yes. You're right. We'd done this already, but we're a bit amateur with the online betting slip, and we placed the same bet twice. Leah, the online help assistant, advised that to reverse our erroneous £2 bet would involve 'referring this to senior management'. Seemed unlikely. And unnecessary. So we left it and have a total of £4 on Sergio to blaze the trail to a 3-0 win.

We still fancied another punt however. 

City scored most of their goals last season in the second half, frequently battering a team for 10-15 minutes with 3 goals or more. Paddy is offering 20/1 against the score in the second half only being 4-0 to City. So forget what happens in the first 45 minutes; this is simply on what happens after the break. We stick £1 on, bringing our match stake to £7, and log off.

THE MATCH

The game is barely 8 minutes old when Sergio Aguero, City's Championship winning last-gasp goal hero, tries to outstrip a Southampton tackly down the left flank, hits the deck badly, and has to be stretchered off. Under 10 minutes gone, and our £4 bet is in the bin.

On comes Edin Dzeko in Aguero's place, and just a few minutes later Tevez is downed in the box and Howard Webb is pointing to the spot. This is good for us, as one of our remaining wagers depends on City going in 1-0 up at the break. So... Dzeko? Tevez? Nasri? No. For some unfathomable reason, up comes David Silva for such a poor penalty that Davies in the Southampton goal can barely believe his luck and saves comfortable.

As thehalf pushes on, City's dominance builds and, on 40 minutes, Tevez takes a through ball from the right and slots a neat drive inside the keeper's near post.

City go in 1-0 ahead, meaning that Ben and I have two shots for PaddyP glory: we need 3 more City goals after the break without reply, for our 1-0/3-1 HT/FT combo to kick in. Alternatively, four from City after the break, without reply, withh mean we collect on our 4-0 second half score punt.

HT  City 1 - Southampton 0

Fifteen minutes into the second half, it's going to plan. Ish. Southampton bring on Ricky Lambert who scores within seconds. OK. Our 4-0 second half prediction is dead, but we're set for that 1-0 HT/3-1 FT combo that will land us £80 at 40/1 for our £2 punt.

Then it all goes wrong. Adkins brings on Davis and he slots one in almost instantly.  It's 1-2. All of our bets are now gone and, worse still, we're trailing. At home.

As in the final game of last season, Dzeko equalises for 2-2. And as in the final game of last season, we go on to clinch a 3-2 win when Nasri smashes a loose clearance in from 15 yards.

Tough start to the season for City... and a reminder for Ben and I , who lose our £7 stake and end up with our pot reduced to £84, that a crystal ball, like a football, doesn't always bounce your way.

The Charity Shield - 12 August 2012 - Chelsea v City at Villa Park

Fifty quid in our account. Twenty-five of mine: twenty five of Ben's. A new season ahead. So what to start on?

We've decided not to bet more than 10% of our pot on any one game, so that means we have a fiver to play with today.

PaddyPower, our bookmaker of choice, is offering what looks like an excellent deal. If Sergio Aguero, who scored 30 times last season, scores the first goal of the game today, PP will reimburese all losing bets on the first scorer and the actual game result.

Liking this a lot, we decide to back the returning, slimmed down anti-hero Carlos Tevez to score first at 6/1  with 2 quid.

Then we choose a score. City have a great attack, Chelsea have Torres, and we figure that at this point in the season the defences may not quite have settled in. We put £2 on a 3-2 win for City at an inviting 22/1.

We have £1 left. There's a decent looking 10/1 being offered on a 2-2 draw. As we don't back City to lose, whatever happens, we take that.

THE GAME

Against the odds, Torres scores first. Our bet on Tevez is dead, as is our insurance policy gift from PP. At HT, Chelsea lead 1-0. We need a 2-2 draw or a 3-2 win. Oh... and Chelsea are down to 10 men, the referee having rather harshly red-carded Ivanovic late in the first half. 

Second half starts well. Yaya Toure smacks in a poor clearance for 1-1. Then Tevez works some magic across the face of the Chelsea defence and hammers home for 2-1. Within a couple more minutes Nasri has lashed home a rising cross from Kolarov and City are 3-1 up with half an hour left. We're thinking we should have taken 4-1. Maybe even 5-1. But then Pantilimon, deputising in goal for Joe Hart, fails to hold onto a perfectly claimable shot, and Bertrand brings it back to 3-2 with 10 minutes to go.

And so it ends. City hold on for the 3-2 win as Ben and I share the bittersweet anguish of all fan-gamblers: our hunger for more City goals dimmed by our desire to swell our pot.

In the end, the 3-2 win fortuitously plumped for at 22/1 means we finish the day £44 up and £3 down, with our account now standing at £91.